To find the danger level, look at Bitcoin's price **four years before the current date

 Bitcoin has historically shown a pattern of reaching new all-time highs (ATH) during its bull cycles, followed by significant corrections—but it has **never** fallen below its price from **four years prior** in any bear market. This trend highlights Bitcoin's long-term upward trajectory despite its volatility.

### **Where Is This "Four-Year Ago" Level?**

To find the danger level, look at Bitcoin's price **four years before the current date**. For example:

- **April 2025**: Check Bitcoin's price in **April 2021** (~$60,000 at the ATH, but corrections took it to ~$30,000).  

- **If Bitcoin were to fall to its April 2021 level**, the danger zone would be around **$30,000–$40,000**.

### **What Happens If Bitcoin Falls to This Level?**

1. **Psychological Impact** – Breaking this historical support would shake investor confidence, as it would be the first time Bitcoin retraced **below its four-year baseline**.

2. **Miners Under Pressure** – If Bitcoin drops near production costs (~$30,000–$35,000 for many miners), some may shut down, reducing network security.

3. **Potential Capitulation** – Long-term holders might panic-sell, leading to a deeper crash.

4. **Buying Opportunity?** – If Bitcoin recovers from this level, it could present a generational buying opportunity, similar to past cycle lows.

### **Is This Likely?**

- Bitcoin has **always** held above its four-year-ago price, even in extreme bear markets (e.g., 2018 crash bottomed at ~$3,200, still above 2014’s price).  

- A drop to this level would require a **black swan event** (e.g., regulatory crackdown, major exchange collapse, or macroeconomic crisis).  

### **Conclusion**

The **"four-year-ago level"** acts as Bitcoin’s ultimate historical support. If broken, it could signal a **structural market shift**, but it would also present a rare buying opportunity for those who believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value.